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**** Click Left Mouse Button to Start and Stop Text ****
THE STOCK ANALYST
from
Aggressive Communications
VERSION 2.00
September 2, 1990
Copyright (c) 1989,1990 Aggressive Communications
LICENSE AGREEMENT
READ THE FOLLOWING TERMS AND CONDITIONS BEFORE USING THE
ACCOMPANYING SOFTWARE AND/OR ASSOCIATED DOCUMENTATION. USE OF
EITHER THE SOFTWARE OR DOCUMENTATION CONSTITUTES ACCEPTANCE ON
YOUR PART OF THESE TERMS AND CONDITIONS.
THE SOFTWARE AND DOCUMENTATION IS PROVIDED 'AS IS', AND NO
WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, IS PROVIDED. THIS
INCLUDES, BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO, THE FITNESS FOR USE FOR ANY
PURPOSE. THE FULL EXTENT OF ANY AND ALL LIABILITIES ARE ASSUMED
BY YOU. UNDER NO CONDITIONS WILL THE AUTHOR BE LIABLE FOR ANY
DAMAGES, INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL, INCLUDING ANY CURRENT OR
FUTURE FINANCIAL LOSS OF INCOME, PROFITS, OR SAVINGS, ARISING
FROM THE USE, MISUSE, OR INABILITY TO USE THIS SOFTWARE. THE
AUTHOR DOES NOT WARRANT THAT THE SOFTWARE FUNCTIONS WILL MEET
YOUR REQUIREMENTS OR THAT THE OPERATION OF THE SOFTWARE WILL BE
UNINTERRUPTED OR ERROR FREE. FURTHERMORE, THE SOFTWARE OR
DOCUMENTATION MAY CONTAIN ERRORS THAT CAN BE CORRECTED
WITHOUT ANY NOTIFICATION. YOU ASSUME LIABILITY FOR THE RESULTS
OBTAINED FROM ANY USE OF THE SOFTWARE OR DOCUMENTATION.
YOU MAY MAKE ONE COPY OF THE SOFTWARE FOR BACKUP PURPOSES. YOU
MAY NOT MODIFY THE SOFTWARE OR A BACKUP COPY OF THE SOFTWARE IN
ANY WAY. YOU MAY NOT COPY THE DOCUMENTATION BY ANY MEANS. YOU
MAY TRANSFER THE ORIGINAL SOFTWARE AND THE DOCUMENTATION TO
ANOTHER PARTY PROVIDED THE TRANSFEREE ACCEPTS THESE TERMS AND
CONDITIONS, AND YOU DESTROY THE BACKUP COPY OF THE SOFTWARE YOU
MAY HAVE CREATED.
YOU ACKNOWLEDGE READING AND UNDERSTANDING THIS LICENSE AND AGREE
TO BE BOUND BY ITS TERMS AND CONDITIONS. YOU ALSO AGREE THAT
THIS LICENSE IS THE SOLE AGREEMENT WHICH EXISTS BETWEEN US
REGARDLESS OF HOW THE SOFTWARE MAY HAVE BEEN OTHERWISE
REPRESENTED.
UNDER COPYRIGHT LAWS, NEITHER THE DOCUMENTATION OR SOFTWARE MAY
BE COPIED, PHOTOCOPIED, TRANSLATED, OR REPRODUCED IN ANY MANNER
TO AN ELECTRONIC MEDIUM OR MACHINE-READABLE FORM, IN WHOLE OR IN
PART, EXCEPT AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
COPYRIGHT (C) 1989,1990 AGGRESSIVE COMMUNICATIONS
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
CREATED AND PRINTED IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.
AMIGA IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF COMMODORE BUSINESS MACHINES.
- i -
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter 1 Introduction Section
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0
General . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1
How to Boot The Stock Analyst . . . . . . . . . 1.2
The Stock Analyst Data Files . . . . . . . . . . 1.3
Chapter 2 Stock Updater
General . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1
Project . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2
Master File . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3
Equity File . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4
Chapter 3 The Stock Analyst
General . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1
Project . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2
Price Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3
Volume Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4
Breadth Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5
Defaults . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6
Graph Tools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7
Chapter 4 Technical Analysis
General . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1
Advance/Decline Line . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2
CBOE Put/Call Volume Ratio . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3
Chaikin Oscillator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4
Commodity Channel Index . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5
Directional Movement Indicator . . . . . . . . . 4.6
Lane's Stochastics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.7
Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8
Moving Averages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.9
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence . . . . . 4.10
On Balance Volume . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.11
Positive and Negative Volume Index . . . . . . . 4.12
Price Rate-of-Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.13
Price and Volume Trend . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.14
Relative Strength . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.15
Trend Lines / Trading Band . . . . . . . . . . . 4.16
Volume Accumulation and Distribution . . . . . . 4.17
Wilder's Relative Strength Index . . . . . . . . 4.18
Williams' Percentage R . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.19
Appendix A: References
Appendix B: Suggested Reading
- ii -
1.0 INTRODUCTION
Thank you for purchasing The Stock Analyst. The author hopes
that your investment in this software package is profitable. The
Stock Analyst provides for a means of storing and maintaining a
variety of data associated with the stock market as well as
processing the data such that buy and sell decisions can be made
with some degree of confidence that a profit will be made.
This document is organized to provide you with a general
introduction to The Stock Analyst and how to get started in
Chapter 1. Chapter 2 contains instructions on running the Stock
Updater program used for updating and maintaining stock data.
Chapter 3 contains instructions on running The Stock Analyst and
displaying the various indicator graphs as well as working with
the graph tools. An explanation of each technical indicator and
how to use an indicator under various market conditions is
discussed in Chapter 4.
The Stock Analyst should not be the sole source of information
upon which your investment decisions are made. In the same way
that the technical indicators provided by The Stock Analyst must
be used to confirm one another, your Investment Advisor, Stock
Broker, or business newspapers, and your own experienced opinion
should be considered as other sources for a confirming signal.
Profits and losses realized in the past due to the use of any
technical indicator does not necessarily predict future indicator
performance.
1.1 GENERAL
The Stock Analyst is a bootable Workbench disk. It should be
booted after using Kickstart version 1.2 or higher. It is
recommended that you boot with The Stock Analyst due to a unique
setting within the Preference system-configuration file. In
order to perform graphic dumps to a graphics printer, the graphic
print selection within Preferences is set to negative.
1.1.1 SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS
The Stock Analyst runs on any Amiga 500, 1000, or 2000 with at
least 512K of RAM and a single disk drive. A printer capable of
printing graphics is required to perform screen dumps to the
printer. A color monitor is suggested since the Stock Analyst
displays graphs in color.
The Stock Analyst comes with one printer driver: generic. If your
printer requires a specific driver, it will be necessary for you
to copy that driver from your Workbench disk to The Stock Analyst
disk. The printer driver resides in the printers subdirectory
within the devs directory. If you do copy a driver to The Stock
Analyst disk, that driver will need to be selected within
Preferences. See the Amiga users manual concerning specifying
printer drivers within Preferences.
1.1.2 DISK CONTENTS
The Stock Analyst is a bootable disk. Therefore, the standard
Workbench directories, libraries, and files reside on the disk.
The files unique to The Stock Analyst as well as files required
by The Stock Analyst include:
exec.bmap Required for library function calls.
layers.bmap Required for library function calls.
graphics.bmap Required for library function calls.
Stock Analyst Executable program.
Stock Updater Executable program.
stocks Master File of Stocks.
putcall.dat Data file of CBOE Put and Call Volume.
adline.dat Data file of NYSE Advances/Declines.
sp500.dat Data file of Standard & Poor 500 Index.
sp100.dat Data file of Standard & Poor 100 Index.
djidaily.dat Data file of Dow Jones Industrial
Average (DJIA) daily price information.
The .bmap files are required for various library calls for
setting up a borderless window, some of the plotting routines,
and some of the text output routines. The .bmap files are
absolutely required to run the Stock Updater and The Stock
Analyst programs and must reside in the root directory of the
disk from which the executable program is initiated (this should
be The Stock Analyst disk).
1.1.3 BACKING UP THE STOCK ANALYST
The Stock Analyst is not copy protected. You can, and are
advised, to make one backup copy and place the original disk in a
safe place. The backup copy should be used as the working copy
with the original available in an emergency situation. Refer to
your documentation included with the Amiga for details on
duplicating a disk.
Since the programs included with The Stock Analyst are useless
without up-to-date stock information, it is a good idea to
routinely backup the disk which contains your stock data. A
backup of stock data should be made at least weekly.
1.2 HOW TO BOOT THE STOCK ANALYST DISK
The Stock Analyst disk may be booted by following the steps
outlined below:
1. Turn on the Amiga.
2. Insert the Kickstart disk version 1.2 or higher, into drive
df0:, the internal disk drive.
3. When prompted for the Workbench disk, insert The Stock Analyst
disk into drive df0:, the internal disk drive.
4. The Workbench screen will appear with the disk icon for The
Stock Analyst.
5. Refer to section 1.2.1 for loading and executing the
Stock Updater program or 1.2.2 for loading and executing The
Stock Analyst program.
If Kickstart and another disk have already been booted, follow
the steps outlined below to boot The Stock Analyst:
1. Remove any disks in the disk drive(s).
2. Simultaneously depress the Control key and the left and
right Amiga keys to perform a warm-boot.
3. When prompted for the Workbench disk, insert The Stock Analyst
disk into drive df0:, the internal disk drive.
4. The Workbench screen will appear with the disk icon for The
Stock Analyst.
5. Refer to section 1.2.1 for loading and executing the
Stock Updater program or 1.2.2 for loading and executing
The Stock Analyst program.
1.2.1 STOCK UPDATER
Having booted The Stock Analyst disk as described in 1.2, the
Stock Updater program may be executed as follows:
1. Open The Stock Analyst disk icon by moving the mouse such that
the pointer is over the disk icon and double click the left
mouse button.
2. With the disk window open displaying the various program
icons, move the mouse such that the pointer is over the Stock
Updater program icon and double click the left mouse button.
3. The Stock Updater program will load and execute. The screen
should go blank and then display a title screen. Click the
left mouse button to clear the screen.
4. Refer to Chapter 2 on using the Stock Updater program to
update and maintain stock data files.
1.2.2 THE STOCK ANALYST
Having booted The Stock Analyst disk as described in 1.2, The
Stock Analyst program may be executed as follows:
1. Open The Stock Analyst disk icon by moving the mouse such that
the pointer is over the disk icon and double click the left
mouse button.
2. With the disk window open displaying the various program
icons, move the mouse such that the pointer is over the Stock
Analyst program icon and double click the left mouse button.
3. The Stock Analyst program will load and execute. The screen
will go blank and then display a title screen. Click the left
mouse button to clear the screen.
4. Refer to Chapter 3 on using The Stock Analyst program to
generate the technical indicator graphs.
1.3 THE STOCK ANALYST DATA FILES
The data files used by The Stock Analyst include a Master File,
Equity Files, a file containing NYSE issues which advanced,
declined, or were unchanged, and a file containing CBOE Put and
Call volumes. These files may be created and/or maintained via
the Stock Updater program or via a text editor. If a text editor
is used to update a file, the format of the file must be
maintained as described below in each file description. In
addition, the files are date dependant and must always be in
descending order, that is the most recent date is the first line
and the oldest date is the last line in the text file.
These files generally reside in the root directory of whatever
disk they are located on. Currently the Stock Analyst will allow
up to 70 securities to be followed. The security data files can
contain up to 750 data sets which represents 3 years of daily
data, or over 14 years of weekly data.
1.3.1 MASTER FILE
The Master File name is stocks and contains the formal name of
the equity and the equity data file name. For example:
Dow 30 Industrials <-- Formal equity #1 name
djidaily.dat <-- Equity #1 data file
NYSE Advance/Decline <-- Formal equity #2 name
adline.dat <-- Equity #2 data file
MCI Communications <-- Formal equity #3 name
mci.dat <-- Equity #3 data file
: : : :
The Master File, stocks, must reside in the root directory of the
disk from which the Stock Updater or The Stock Analyst is
executed from (this should be The Stock Analyst disk). There can
be a maximum of 70 equities followed.
1.3.2 EQUITY FILE
The Equity File contains the actual price data of the securities
being followed. The Equity File data file name is defined in the
Master File as described in section 1.3.1 above, for example
mci.dat. The actual equity price data files can reside anywhere
since the Stock Updater and The Stock Analyst programs allow the
user to change to a data disk located in another drive (df0: or
df1:) if necessary. The format of the equity data files is as
follows:
DATE,CLOSE,HIGH,LOW,VOLUME(in 1,000's)
For example: 891024,43.38,43.88,43.25,234.5
891023,43.63,44.00,43.38,333.7
891022,43.50,43.88,43.13,275.2
: : : :
Note that the date format is YYMMDD, that is year, month, date.
The fractional part of a price must be entered as a decimal. A
price cannot be entered as 43 3/8. Finally, the volume is entered
in thousands. Note that the data is in descending order based
upon the date.
If a commodity such as gold is being followed, and only closing
prices are available, then the closing price should be entered
for the close, high, and low entries, and the volume should be
zero.
1.3.3 ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE
In order for The Stock Analyst to display the NYSE
Advanced/Decline Line, the data file adline.dat must be kept
current on a day-for-day basis with the Dow Jones Industrial
Average equity data file djidaily.dat. The format of this data
file is as follows:
DATE,ADVANCES,DECLINES,UNCHANGED,ZERO
For example: 891024,564,978,432,0
891023,694,512,501,0
891022,1012,465,522,0
: : : :
Note the date format is YYMMDD, that is year, month, date. As
discussed in Chapter 4 for interpretation of the Advanced/Decline
Line, the daily Dow Jones Industrial Average is compared with the
A/D line; therefore, it is mandatory for the dates in the
djidaily.dat and the adline.dat data files to correspond
one-to-one. It is recommended that these data files reside in a
common directory on the same disk. Note that the data is in
descending order based upon the date.
1.3.4 CBOE PUT/CALL RATIO
In order for The Stock Analyst to display the CBOE Put/Call
Volume Ratio, the data file putcall.dat must be kept current on a
day-for-day basis with the Dow Jones Industrial Average equity
data file djidaily.dat. The format of this data file is as
follows:
DATE,CBOE CALL VOLUME,CBOE PUT VOLUME,ZERO,ZERO
For example: 891024,320123,120865,0,0
891023,333154,221987,0,0
891022,243512,89543,0,0
: : : :
Note the date format is YYMMDD, that is year, month, date. As
discussed in Chapter 4 for interpretation of the CBOE Put/Call
Ratio, the daily Dow Jones Industrial Average is compared with
the Put/Call line; therefore, it is mandatory for the dates in
the djidaily.dat and the putcall.dat data files to correspond
one-to-one. It is recommended that these data files reside in a
common directory on the same disk. Note that the data is in
descending order based upon the date.
1.3.5 STANDARD & POOR 100 & 500 INDEX
Included with The Stock Analyst data files are the S&P 100 and
S&P 500 price files. These are included to provide the ability
to consider the performance of the broad market. The S&P 100 and
S&P 500 can be used in Relative Strength calculations. It is
sometimes advantageous to consider the performance of an
individual stock against a broad market index such as the DJIA or
one of the S&P indices. The format of these data files is as
follows:
DATE,CLOSE,HIGH,LOW,ZERO
For example: 891024,340.23,344.76,339.44,0
891023,341.33,346.31,340.01,0
891022,338.23,342.84,336.57,0
: : : :
Note the date format is YYMMDD, that is year, month, date. Refer
to section 4.15 for interpretation of the Relative Strength
Indicator. As noted in section 4.15, the price data of an equity
is compared with a broad market index; therefore, it is mandatory
for the dates in all equity .dat price data files and the broad
market index .dat price data file correspond one-to-one. It is
recommended that these data files reside wherever the equity
price data files reside. Note that the data is in descending
order based upon the date.
1.3.6 DEFAULT INDICATOR TIME PERIODS
When a new security is added to the Master File stocks, a file
containing default indicator time periods unique to the new
security is also created. When created, this file has a suffix
of .dfl. While this file is always created, it is an optional
file in that The Stock Analyst program looks for the file and
loads it if it is available. The .dfl files are created with the
following initial values:
12 <-- Price Rate-of-Change Period
5 <-- Stochastic %K Period
3 <-- Stochastic %D Period
10 <-- Williams' %R Period
14 <-- Wilder's RSI Period
10 <-- Commodity Channel Index Period
50 <-- Moving Average #1 Period
200 <-- Moving Average #2 Period
25 <-- +/- Volume Index Moving Average Period
10 <-- % Variation for 1st Envelope Trading Band
-5 <-- % Variation for 2nd Envelope Trading Band
10 <-- A/D Line Momentum Period
10 <-- Indicator Exponential Moving Average Period
50 <-- Linear Regression Period
14 <-- Directional Movement Indicator Period
Once a security has been analyzed using the various indicators
and tools provided by The Stock Analyst, the user will find
indicator time periods which provide optimum buy/sell signals
which differ from the above defaults. The .dfl file can then
edited to reflect the time periods which work best for each
security. Refer to section 2.4.6 on editing the .dfl file.
2.0 STOCK UPDATER
This chapter details the use of the Stock Updater program to
manage the stock data used by The Stock Analyst. The data
required by The Stock Analyst can be found in any newspaper which
has a decent business section. The data required includes:
- Dow 30 Industrials high, low, close, and volume
- Your selected securities high, low, close, and volume
- NYSE issues advancing, declining, and unchanged
- CBOE call and put volume
- S&P 500 Index high, low, and close
- S&P 100 Index high, low, and close
It is recommended that the data files be updated on a daily basis
if daily data is followed, or on a weekly basis if weekly data is
followed.
2.1 GENERAL
Having executed the Stock Updater program as described in section
1.2.1, all subsequent activities are menu driven. An activity is
selected from the menu by pressing the right mouse button which
reveals the main menu selections. With the right mouse button
depressed, move the mouse such that the pointer is over, and
highlights, the desired main menu selection which will reveal the
submenu items. Move the mouse down such that the pointer moves
into the submenu items, and highlights the desired submenu
activity. Release the right mouse button and the desired submenu
activity will be selected. The main menu selections include
Project, Master File, and Equity File. Each menu item is
described below.
2.2 PROJECT
The Project menu contains general activities related to updating
any specific type of data file. Under the Project Menu are the
submenu items Print Data, Chg Directory, and Quit.
2.2.1 PRINT DATA
Selecting Print Data opens a window and displays the available
data files. Select More if there are more data files than can be
displayed in one window. Select a data file by moving the mouse
over an equity name and click the left mouse button. The
selected item will become highlighted. Then move the mouse such
that the pointer is over Select and click the left mouse button
to load the data, or select Cancel to cancel the operation.
Upon loading a data file, the stock data is printed via the PRT:
device. Upon intervals of 50 data sets, the output may be
terminated or continued.
2.2.2 CHANGE DIRECTORY
Selecting Change Directory allows disk access to a data disk if
that is where the stock data is stored. Upon selecting Change
Directory, a window opens with gadgets showing drives DF0: and
DF1:. Click the left mouse button on the gadget of whichever
drive contains the stock data files. In the event that an
attempted disk access is made to a data file which is not
resident on the current disk, an error message will be displayed
that the file was not found.
2.2.3 QUIT
Selecting Quit terminates the Stock Updater program. The user is
returned to the Workbench screen.
2.3 MASTER FILE
The submenu items under Master File deal with manipulating the
file stocks. For a description of this file, see section 1.3.1.
The file stocks resides in the root directory of The Stock
Analyst disk. Through the Master File submenu items, it is
possible to add (create), edit and delete stocks which are
maintained.
2.3.1 ADD ENTRY
The Add Entry function essentially creates a new stock data file
in the current directory. Before selecting Add Entry to create a
new stock data file, the user should be certain that the correct
disk volume (df0: or df1:) has been selected as described in
2.2.2. Upon selecting Add Entry, the user is prompted for the
formal equity name and the name of the data file. For example:
ENTER EQUITY NAME
(Press RETURN to Quit)? Dupont <Return>
ENTER DATA FILE NAME
(Program will append '.dat')? DD <Return>
Note that the Stock Updater program will append .dat to the data
file name. Entries are made via the keyboard and pressing Return
completes the entries. Pressing Return at a prompt with no input
will abort the Add Entry function.
The formal equity name and the data file name will be added to
the Master File stocks, and an empty data file will be created.
In addition to creating an empty price .dat data file for the
security created, a file containing default indicator time
periods unique to the security is created with the suffix .dfl.
The format of the .dat file is given in section 1.3.6. Section
2.4.6 covers editing the .dfl default indicator time periods.
It is possible to create data files within subdirectories. This
is accomplished by inputting a full path name for the data file
name. For example, suppose price data files are kept on a data
disk in a subdirectory called EQUO. The data disk is located on
DF1:, the external disk drive. To create a new stock price file
for a stock called Dupont with a symbol of DD, you would first
change directory to DF1: as described in section 2.2.2. Then
select Add Entry and enter:
ENTER EQUITY NAME
(Press RETURN to Quit)? Dupont <Return>
ENTER DATA FILE NAME
(Program will append '.dat')? EQUO/DD <Return>
Note that the data file name contains the full subdirectory path.
In the event that a file already exists with the specified name,
the Updater will not create an empty file.
2.3.2 EDIT ENTRY
Selecting Edit Entry opens a window and displays the available
data files. Select More if there are more data files than can be
displayed in one window. Select a data file by moving the mouse
over an equity name and click the left mouse button. The
selected item will become highlighted. Then move the mouse such
that the pointer is over Select and click the left mouse button
to select the file, or select Cancel to cancel the operation.
A window will display the current formal equity name and data
file name. The user is prompted to enter (edit) the formal
equity name and file name. For example:
Present Equity Name: Dup0nt
EDIT EQUITY NAME
(Press RETURN to Quit)? Dupont <Return>
Present Data File Name: DD.dat
EDIT DATA FILE NAME
(Program will append '.dat')? DD <Return>
Entries are completed by pressing the Return key. This
information is then updated in the Master File stocks, and the
equity data file and defaults file are renamed as required.
2.3.3 DELETE ENTRY
Selecting Delete Entry opens a window and displays the available
data files. Select More if there are more data files than can be
displayed in one window. Select a data file to be deleted by
moving the mouse over an equity name and click the left mouse
button. The selected item will become highlighted. Then move
the mouse such that the pointer is over Select and click the left
mouse button to select the file, or select Cancel to cancel the
operation.
The user is prompted to indicate whether or not the selected
equity data should be removed from the Master File stocks. For
example:
DELETE Equity: Dupont
Answer: Y or N <Y>
Dupont will be DELETED!
O.K. TO CONTINUE? Y/N <Y>
'Y' or 'N' inputs are made by simply pressing the appropriate
key. It is not necessary to press Return. This activity should be
used with care. Note that only the security entry in the Master
File stocks is deleted. The actual price data .dat file is not
deleted from the data disk.
2.4 EQUITY FILE
The submenu items under Equity File deal with maintaining the
.dat files which contain the price and/or volume data used by The
Stock Analyst program. For a description of these files, see
section 1.3. Through the Equity File submenu items, it is
possible to add new, edit existing and delete price and/or volume
data associated with the securities which are maintained.
2.4.1 ADD ENTRY
Selecting Add Entry opens a window and displays the available
data files. Select More if there are more data files than can be
displayed in one window. Select a data file by moving the mouse
over an equity name and click the left mouse button. The
selected item will become highlighted. Then move the mouse such
that the pointer is over Select and click the left mouse button
to load the data, or select Cancel to cancel the operation.
A window will open displaying the equity formal name and the date
of the most recent data entry. For example:
Dupont Last Date: 900203
Enter DATE as YYMMDD
(Press RETURN to Quit/Save)? 900204 <Return>
ENTER CLOSING PRICE ? 23.13 <Return>
ENTER HIGH PRICE ? 23.38 <Return>
ENTER LOW PRICE ? 23.00 <Return>
ENTER VOLUME (1000's)? 757.2 <Return>
Prompts for the date, close, high, low, and volume data are made.
Entries are made via the keyboard and completed by pressing the
Return key. Continuous data entries can be made at this point and
may be terminated by pressing Return without any entry at the
date prompt. The data will be sorted in descending order by date
and rewritten to the equity data file.
Valid inputs of the date must be in the form YYMMDD. For
example, February 4, 1990 would be input 900204. Valid inputs
for price data is any number greater than zero. Valid inputs for
the volume is any non-negative number.
If the Advance/Decline Line or CBOE Put/Call Ratio data files,
adline.dat or putcall.dat respectively, are being updated, the
prompts change corresponding to the data being input. However,
the methodology of entering the data is identical as described
above.
2.4.2 EDIT ENTRY
Selecting Edit Entry opens a window and displays the available
data files. Select More if there are more data files than can be
displayed in one window. Select a data file by moving the mouse
over an equity name and click the left mouse button. The selected
item will become highlighted. Then move the mouse such that the
pointer is over Select and click the left mouse button to load
the data, or select Cancel to cancel the operation.
A window will open displaying the equity formal name and the date
of the most recent data entry. For example:
Dupont Last Date: 900206
ENTER DATE AS YYMMDD
(Press RETURN to Quit)? 900204 <Return>
-- If the date is found, the screen clears and displays: --
Present DATE is: 900204
EDIT DATE (YYMMDD)? 900204 <Return>
Present CLOSING Price: $23.13
EDIT CLOSING PRICE: $? 23.25 <Return>
Present HIGH Price: $23.38
EDIT HIGH PRICE: $? 23.38 <Return>
Present LOW Price: $23.00
EDIT LOW PRICE: $? 22.88 <Return>
Present VOLUME (1000's): 757.2
EDIT VOLUME (1000's) ? 757.2 <Return>
Current data for the date, close, high, low, and volume and
prompts for new date, close, high, low, and volume data are made.
Entries are made via the keyboard and completed by pressing the
Return key. Continuous data editing can be made at this point and
may be terminated by pressing Return without any entry at the
date prompt. The data will be sorted by date and rewritten to
the equity data file.
If the Advance/Decline Line or CBOE Put/Call Ratio data files,
adline.dat or putcall.dat respectively, are being updated, the
prompts change relative to the data being edited. However, the
methodology of editing the data is identical as described above.
2.4.3 DELETE ENTRY
Selecting Delete Entry opens a window and displays the available
data files. Select More if there are more data files than can be
displayed in one window. Select a data file by moving the mouse
over an equity name and click the left mouse button. The
selected item will become highlighted. Then move the mouse such
that the pointer is over Select and click the left mouse button
to load the data, or select Cancel to cancel the operation.
A window will open displaying the equity formal name and the date
of the most recent data entry. A prompt for the date of the data
set to be deleted is made. The format of the date input is
YYMMDD, for example October 24, 1989 would be entered as 891024.
The current data for the date selected is displayed and the user
is asked to delete the data. For example:
Dupont Last Date: 900204
Enter DATE as YYMMDD
(Press RETURN to Quit)? 900204 <Return>
DELETE this data?
DATE : 900204
CLOSE : 23.13
HIGH : 23.38
LOW : 22.88
VOLUME : 757.2
ARE YOU SURE? Y/N <Y>
Entries are made via the keyboard and completed by pressing the
Return key. Continuous data deleting can be made at this point
and may be terminated by pressing Return without any entry at the
date prompt. The data will be sorted by date and rewritten to the
equity data file.
If the Advance/Decline Line or CBOE Put/Call Ratio data files,
adline.dat or putcall.dat respectively, are being updated, the
prompts change relative to the data being deleted. However,the
methodology of deleting the data is identical as described above.
2.4.4 STOCK SPLIT
Selecting Stock Split opens a window and displays the available
data files. Select More if there are more data files than can be
displayed in one window. Select a data file by moving the mouse
over an equity name and click the left mouse button. The
selected item will become highlighted. Then move the mouse such
that the pointer is over Select and click the left mouse button
to load the data, or select Cancel to cancel the operation.
A window will open displaying the formal equity name and the date
of the most recent data entry. A date is prompted for the
effectivity date of the stock split. A ratio is likewise
prompted for to indicate the type of split, for example 3 for 2.
For example, a two-for-one stock split for Dupont effective as of
October 24, 1989 is entered as follows:
Dupont
Enter Stock Split Ratio as
X-for-Y by Entering: X/Y:? 2/1 <Return>
Enter Effectivity Date (YYMMDD)
(Press RETURN to Quit)? 891024 <Return>
Entries are made via the keyboard and completed by pressing the
Return key. The stock price data will be adjusted for all dates
prior to, and including, the effectivity date entered. The data
will be sorted by date and rewritten to the equity data file.
2.4.5 STOCK DIVIDEND
Selecting Stock Dividend opens a window and displays the
available data files. Select More if there are more data files
than can be displayed in one window. Select a data file by
moving the mouse over an equity name and click the left mouse
button. The selected item will become highlighted. Then move
the mouse such that the pointer is over Select and click the left
mouse button to load the data, or select Cancel to cancel the
operation.
A window will open displaying the formal equity name and the date
of the most recent data entry. A date is prompted for the
effectivity date of the stock dividend. For example, a ten
dollar dividend payable October 24, 1989 for Holly Corporation is
entered as follows:
Holly Corp
Enter Dividend Amount? 10 <Return>
Enter Effectivity Date (YYMMDD)
(Press RETURN to Quit)? 891024 <Return>
Entries are made via the keyboard and completed by pressing the
Return key. The stock price data will be adjusted for all dates
prior to, and including, the effectivity date entered. The data
will be sorted by date and rewritten to the equity data file.
2.4.6 EDIT DEFAULTS
When working with the various indicators, it will become obvious
that varying the time period of an indicator will provide
different buy/sell signals. As a result, it is possible to
optimize signals given by the indicator through repeated trials
using different time periods. Once an optimum period has been
identified, that period can be used again later. You will want to
change the default time period to insure that the optimize period
is consistently used in future analyses. Using the Edit Defaults
function allows you to edit the data stored in the .dfl file.
Selecting Edit Defaults opens a window and displays the available
data files. Select More if there are more data files than can be
displayed in one window. Select a data file by moving the mouse
over an equity name and click the left mouse button. The
selected item will become highlighted. Then move the mouse such
that the pointer is over Select and click the left mouse button
to load the data, or select Cancel to cancel the operation.
A window will open displaying each indicator and its current
default value. A prompt will be given to enter a new default
value. Enter the new default value and press Return, or simply
press Return with no entry and the default value will remain
unchanged. Upon completing entries (or pressing Return with no
input) for all time dependant indicators, the appropriate .dfl
defaults data file is updated.
3.0 THE STOCK ANALYST
This chapter deals with the operation of The Stock Analyst
program. How to load and construct the indicator graphs is
presented as well as a discussion on how to use the graph tools
to enhance the analysis of the indicators. Suggestions on how to
analyze an indicator are covered in chapter 4.
3.1 GENERAL
Having executed The Stock Analyst program as described in section
1.2.2, all subsequent activities are menu driven. An activity is
selected from the menu by pressing the right mouse button which
reveals the main menu selections. With the right mouse button
depressed, move the mouse such that the pointer is over, and
highlights, the desired main menu selection which will reveal the
submenu items. Move the mouse down such that the pointer moves
into the submenu items, and highlights the desired submenu
activity. Release the right mouse button and the desired submenu
activity will be selected. The main menu includes Project, Price
Indicator, Volume Indicator, Breadth Indicator, Defaults, and
Graph Tools. Each menu item is described below.
3.2 PROJECT
The Project menu contains submenu functions which are not
specifically related to a type of indicator graph. Various
program functions are included under the Project menu.
3.2.1 LOAD DATA
Selecting Load Data opens a window and displays the available
data files. Select More if there are more data files than can be
displayed in one window. Select a data file by moving the mouse
pointer over an equity name and click the left mouse button. The
selected item will become highlighted. Then move the mouse such
that the pointer is over Load and click the left mouse button to
load the data, or select Cancel to cancel the operation.
At this point all of the data in the data file is loaded into
memory. The user can select a specific time interval to be
displayed by entering beginning and ending dates to be displayed.
The dates of the first and last entries in the data file are
shown in parenthesis as the default dates. Pressing Return with
no input selects the default dates. Therefore, to display all
the data for a security, the user simply presses Return at the
prompts with no input. Otherwise, start and ending dates are
entered in the familiar YYMMDD format. For example, after
selecting Dupont to study, you wish to analyze the stock's
performance during the last six months of 1989. The following
entries would be made:
There were 368 data sets read.
Begin loading data at what date?
( 880906 ) ? 890701 <Return>
Quit loading data at what date?
( 900827 ) ? 891231 <Return>
The high/low/close price graph would be displayed for the period
between July 1, 1898 and December 31, 1989. All subsequent price
and volume indicators selected would likewise be displayed for
the specified time interval. Note that indicator calculations
are made using data from the entire file, yet only the specified
time interval is displayed.
As another example, a user wishes to analyze only data since
January 1, 1990 to the present, the following entries would be
made:
There were 457 data sets read.
Begin loading data at what date?
( 880906 ) ? 900101 <Return>
Quit loading data at what date?
( 900827 ) ? <Return>
Note that no entry is made for the 'Quit loading...' prompt and
the Return key was simply pressed thus selecting the default date
of August 27, 1990.
Selecting the Load Data function loads the price data for the
specified security, and loads the data from the default indicator
period file if it exists. Note that it is necessary to load data
for an equity before any of the price or volume indicator graphs,
or Print Data function under the Project menu are activated.
Zooming-in to a price graph is achieved by specifying a small
number of data sets be displayed. Zooming-out of a price graph
is achieved by specifying a large number of data sets be
displayed.
3.2.2 PRINT DATA
Selecting Print Data will print, via the PRT: device, about 50
data sets of the most recent stock price information. This
submenu item is available only after data has been loaded for an
equity as described in section 3.2.1. If it is desired to print
more data than provided for here, the Stock Updater program
should be use to print additional data (See 2.2.2).
3.2.3 PRINT SCREEN
Selecting Print Screen will perform a graphics dump of the screen
to a graphics printer. This submenu item is available only after
an indicator graph has been drawn, or simply when there is
something on the screen. Other program activity is inhibited
while the graphics dump to the printer is in progress.
3.2.4 CLEAR SCREEN
Selecting Clear Screen simply clears the screen. The current
stock data loaded, if any, is still in memory such that indicator
graphs may still be drawn without having to be reloaded.
3.2.5 CHANGE DIRECTORY
Selecting Change Directory allows disk access to a data disk if
that is where the stock data is stored. Upon selecting Change
Directory, a window opens with gadgets showing drives DF0: and
DF1:. Click on whichever drive contains the stock data files.
In the event that an attempted disk access is made to a data file
which is not resident on the current disk, an error message will
be displayed that the file was not found. Changing directory to
a disk drive which has no disk present in the drive will cause
the program to abort.
3.2.6 QUIT
Selecting Quit terminates The Stock Analyst program. The user is
returned to the Workbench screen.
3.3 PRICE INDICATORS
The price indicator graphs become available once some stock data
has been loaded. These indicators are price sensitive in that
they are solely based upon the change in price over time. Refer
to Chapter 4 for a detailed discussion of each indicator and its
suggested use. Selecting a submenu item clears the screen and
displays information showing the indicator data is being
calculated. Once the calculations are complete, the indicator
graph is displayed. After an indicator graph has been displayed,
the Graph Tools are available for analysis purposes and the graph
may be eventually dumped to a printer at any time.
3.3.1 COMMODITY CHANNEL INDEX (CCI)
The Commodity Channel Index is an indicator which takes the
difference of the current price and a moving average and compares
that to its own inherent volatility. The Commodity Channel Index
is useful as an overbought/oversold indicator and can also be
useful in predicting trend reversals by looking for divergences
between the CCI and the price of the underlying equity.
3.3.2 DIRECTIONAL MOVEMENT INDICATOR (DMI)
The Directional Movement Indicator is a trend-following indicator
developed by J. Welles Wilder. Its primary function is to
indicate strong upward or downward trends. Wilder maintains that
the market remains in a strong trend only 30% of the time. The
DMI is intended to keep investors out of the market during a
neutral or trading market, in the market during strong advances,
and out of the market during declines.
3.3.3 (DMI) POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE DIRECTION INDICATOR
Two of the components which comprise the Directional Movement
Indicator are the Positive Directional Indicator and the Negative
Directional Indicator. These indicators can be used together to
generate buy and sell signals. Upward pressure on the market or
an equity are reflected in the increase of the Positive Direction
Indicator while downward pressures are reflected in the increase
of the Negative Direction Indicator.
3.3.4 LANE'S STOCHASTICS (%K, %D)
Dr. George Lane's Stochastics is a price oscillator similar to
Williams' %R, in that it attempts to predict price trends based
upon a closing price in relation to a range of closing prices
over a specific period of time. Lane's Stochastics provides good
buy and sell signals in a trading (neutral) market. It also
provides confirmation of a present trend as well as signals
pending trend reversals.
3.3.5 LINEAR REGRESSION
The Linear Regression indicator is a form of moving average which
utilizes statistical methods to follow a trend. The Linear
Regression indicator is typically used to indicate the current
trend direction. A rising linear regression line means prices
are on the increase (bullish), while a declining linear
regression line means prices are on the decrease (bearish). In
this manner, the Linear Regression indicator can also be used to
signal trend reversals as the indicator changes direction.
3.3.6 MOVING AVERAGE CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE (MACD) LINE
The MACD Line is constructed by taking the difference between a
26-day and 12-day exponential moving average. A 9-day exponential
moving average is also plotted which represents a 'trigger' line.
This is an excellent indicator for signalling trend reversals.
The buy and sell signals provided by the trigger line are in some
cases late, yet generally reliable.
3.3.7 MOVING AVERAGES
Upon selecting Moving Averages, the user can select either a
simple (unweighted) or exponential moving average. This is done
by moving the mouse and clicking on either the Unweighted or
Exponential gadget. If a simple moving average is selected, the
user can select either a normal or centered moving average. This
is done by moving the mouse and clicking on either the Normal or
Centered gadget.
If the number of days in the moving average exceeds the number of
stock data sets, no moving average will be calculated; and only
the high, low, close, and volume information will be graphed.
See section 3.6 and 3.6.5 on varying the number of days in the
moving average period.
This graph displays the typical high, low, and close price range
as well as a relative volume histogram. The moving averages, if
selected, are drawn over the high, low, close data for analysis
purposes. The indicator can be a simple or exponential moving
average. Simple moving averages can be normal or centered.
This graph displays the price data on a logarithmic scale such
that a price increase from $1.00 to $2.00 has the same meaning
percentage-wise as a price increase from $20.00 to $40.00.
3.3.8 PRICE RATE-OF-CHANGE
The price rate-of-change is an indicator of momentum which
compares the current price to the amount by which the price has
changed over a specific period of time. Therefore, as an
equity's price increases, the ROC indicator will increase.
Likewise, as the price decreases, the ROC will decrease. The ROC
provides confirming overbought and oversold signals; and can
sometimes indicate the continuation of a current price trend.
3.3.9 RELATIVE STRENGTH
The Relative Strength indicator is a ratio of one stock's price
data compared with either a broad market index (such as the DJIA
or S&P 500) or another stock. The Stock Analyst allows a loaded
security to be compared with any other stock or market index of
compatible file type. The Relative Strength indicator is drawn
along with the closing price data of the selected equity.
Trendline analysis, indicator moving average, and other technical
analysis techniques can be used to interpret the chart. This tool
is very useful in finding an equity which is out-performing other
stocks or the market as a whole.
3.3.10 WILDER'S RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX (RSI)
J. Welles Wilder's Relative Strength Index is a price oscillator
which indicates the strength left in a price trend. This
indicator is based upon the number of higher and lower price
closings over a specific time period. This indicator provides
overbought and oversold signals which should be confirmed by
other indicators.
3.3.11 WILLIAMS' PERCENTAGE R (%R)
Larry Williams' %R indicator is a price oscillator which provides
overbought and oversold signals based upon comparing a current
price to a range of prices over a specific time period.
Williams' %R provides good buy and sell signals in a trading
(neutral) market. It also provides confirmation of a present
trend as well as signals pending trend reversals.
3.4 VOLUME INDICATORS
The volume indicator graphs become available once some stock data
has been loaded. These indicators are primarily based upon
volume while others relate volume and price. Volume indicators
show the flow of smart money into or out of an equity. Refer to
chapter 4 for a more detailed discussion of each indicator and
its use. Selecting a submenu item clears the screen and
immediately displays the volume indicator graph. Once an
indicator graph has been displayed, the Graph Tools are available
for analysis purposes and the graph may be eventually dumped to a
printer.
3.4.1 THE CHAIKIN OSCILLATOR
The Chaikin Oscillator, like all volume related indicators,
depicts the flow of smart money into or out of an equity. The
Chaikin Oscillator is used similarly to the OBV indicator. The
amount of accumulation or distribution on a given day is
dependant upon the closing price's relation to its high or low
for the day.
3.4.2 ON-BALANCE VOLUME (OBV)
On-Balance Volume is determined through a positive or negative
volume accumulation depending upon a price's up or down closing.
In this manner, OBV relates price to volume; and ultimately shows
if volume is flowing into or out of an equity. Normally, OBV is
best used to confirm other indicators, but can be used to predict
a market bottom by indicating an increased flow of money into an
equity and an eventual up-trend.
3.4.3 POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE VOLUME INDEX
The Positive and Negative Volume indexes relates increases and
decreases in volume to an equity's change in price. The premise
of these indices is that the negative volume indicates the flow
of smart money in and out of a security while the positive volume
index indicates the flow of uninformed money in and out of a
security. The Stock Analyst displays both the Positive and
Negative Volume Indexes as well as individual 25-day simple
moving averages. See section 3.6.9 for varying the period of the
moving average.
3.4.4 PRICE AND VOLUME TREND
The Price and Volume Trend indicator relates price and volume and
is applied similar to the On-Balance Volume indicator. The Price
and Volume Trend is determined by a cumulative total of the
volume which is adjusted based upon a percentage increase or
decrease in price from the previous day.
3.4.5 VOLUME ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION
The Volume Accumulation/Distribution indicator relates price and
volume and is applied similar to the On-Balance Volume indicator.
The Volume Accumulation/Distribution Line is determined by a
cumulative total of the volume which is adjusted based upon a
comparison of where a price closed in relation to its daily price
range midpoint.
3.5 MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Stock Analyst provides four broad market indicators, three of
which are based upon the NYSE advance/decline/unchange issues,
and one based upon the CBOE call and put volumes. The
Advanced/Decline Line and the CBOE Put/Call Ratio graphs may be
drawn any time. Since these indicators do not use user specific
data files, but instead files included with The Stock Analyst,
they may be displayed without going through the Load Data
function under the Project menu.
3.5.1 ADVANCED/DECLINE (A/D) LINE
The Advanced/Decline line is a broad market indicator since it
considers all securities traded on the NYSE on a given day. It
depicts broad market trends based upon a cumulative difference
between advancing issues and declining issues each adjusted by
the number of issues unchanged. The Stock Analyst displays the
A/D Line and overlays the Dow 30 Industrials (DJIA) daily
closing.
3.5.2 ADVANCE/DECLINE RATIO
The Advance/Decline Ratio indicator is simply the number of
advancing issues divided by the number declining issues. A moving
average is also drawn to smooth any erratic fluctuations. The
Advance/Decline Ratio is used both as an overbought/oversold
indicator and as a momentum oscillator.
3.5.3 BREADTH ADVANCE/DECLINE INDICATOR
The Breadth Advance/Decline Indicator is attributed to Martin
Zweig. It is calculated by taking a 10-day simple moving average
of the number of advancing issues divided by the sum of the
number of advancing issues and the number of declining issues.
When the moving average moves toward 0.6, a bullish signal is
present. When the moving average moves toward 0.4, a bearish
signal is present.
3.5.4 CBOE PUT/CALL RATIO
The Put/Call Ratio is determined by the ratio of the put volume
and the call volume on the Chicago Board of Options Exchange. It
is a broad market indicator since it involves all securities
traded on the CBOE. Generally a high Put/Call Ratio indicates an
impending market rally while a low Put/Call Ratio indicates a
possible market sell-off. The Stock Analyst displays the
Put/Call ratio as well as overlays a 10-day simple moving average
and the Dow 30 Industrials (DJIA) daily closing.
3.6 DEFAULTS
Basically all of the price indicator graphs are based upon an
oscillator which is time dependant. Built into The Stock Analyst
are default time periods for each indicator as specified by the
developer of the technical indicator. When a new security is
created using the Stock Updater, a .dfl file is created which
contains the default time periods. The default time periods are
as follows:
12 <-- Price Rate-of-Change Period
5 <-- Stochastic %K Period
3 <-- Stochastic %D Period
10 <-- Williams' %R Period
14 <-- Wilder's RSI Period
10 <-- Commodity Channel Index Period
50 <-- Moving Average #1 Period
200 <-- Moving Average #2 Period
25 <-- +/- Volume Index Moving Average Period
10 <-- % Variation for 1st Envelope Trading Band
-5 <-- % Variation for 2nd Envelope Trading Band
10 <-- A/D Line Momentum Period
10 <-- Indicator Exponential Moving Average Period
50 <-- Linear Regression Period
14 <-- Directional Movement Indicator Period
These periods may, however, be changed to provide for better buy
and sell signals. For example, Wilder's Relative Strength Index
(RSI) has a recommended oscillator period of 14 days. However,
when the RSI for the Dow 30 Industrials is graphed using a 14 day
period, market tops and bottoms are not clearly discernable. If
the RSI period is lengthened to 30 days and the RSI recalculated,
market tops and bottoms are obvious. In some cases lengthening a
period will avoid most whipsaws thus avoiding false buy or sell
signals. A good time period can be determined by trial and error
using past data for a specific equity to generate reliable
signals. This period can be used later when analyzing the same
equity.
When any of the Default submenu items are selected, a window
opens showing the default value of the period, the current value
of the period, and prompts the user for a new period value. New
values are entered via the keyboard and pressing Return completes
the entry. Pressing Return with no input, or an input of zero,
sets the period to the default.
Once an optimize time period has been decided upon for a specific
equity and indicator, that time period can become the default
value by entering the value into the .dfl file via the Stock
Updater program. See section 2.4.6 on editing .dfl files. The
next time the equity is loaded in The Stock Analyst, the
optimized time periods become the default values.
3.6.1 COMMODITY CHANNEL INDEX
Upon execution, the default period for CCI calculations is
10-days. Other popular periods are 15- and 20-day intervals.
Longer periods identify longer term trends while shorter periods
catch short term trends. Note that short term CCI periods can
cause the investor to get caught up in a whipsaw. This value
should range between 5 and 30.
3.6.2 DIRECTIONAL MOVEMENT INDICATOR
Upon execution, the default period for Directional Movement
Indicator as well as the Positive and Negative Movement Indicator
calculations is 14-days. Longer periods identify longer term
trends while shorter periods catch short term trends. Note that
short term DMI periods can cause the investor to get caught up in
a whipsaw.
3.6.3 LANE'S STOCHASTICS (%K, %D)
Upon execution, the default period for %K calculations is 5-days.
The default period for %D is 3-days. Longer periods identify
longer term trends while shorter periods catch short trends. Note
that short term %K periods can cause the investor to get caught
up in a whipsaw. The %K period can be any value greater than zero
and less than the number of data sets being considered. The
value for %D should be between 3 and 5-days.
3.6.4 LINEAR REGRESSION
Upon execution, the default period for Linear Regression
calculations is 50-days. Longer periods identify longer term
trends while shorter periods catch short term trends. Note that
short term Linear Regression periods can cause the investor to
get caught up in a whipsaw. This value should range between 25
and 300 days.
3.6.5 MOVING AVERAGES
There are two moving averages which can be displayed. Upon
execution, the default periods are 50 and 200-days. These values
can be any number greater than zero. If an invalid number is
entered, the default value is used. If a moving average period is
greater than the number of stock data sets, the moving average
will not be calculated or displayed. In this manner, none, one
or two moving averages can be displayed.
3.6.6 PRICE RATE-OF-CHANGE
Upon execution, the default period for ROC calculations is
12-days. Longer periods identify longer term trends while
shorter periods catch short trends. Note that short term ROC
periods can cause the investor to get caught up in a whipsaw.
This period can be any value greater than zero and less than the
number of data sets being considered.
3.6.7 WILDER'S RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX (RSI)
Upon execution, the default period for RSI calculations is
14-days. Other popular periods are 9 and 25-day intervals.
Longer periods identify longer term trends while shorter periods
catch short trends. Note that short term RSI periods can cause
the investor to get caught up in a whipsaw. This period can be
any value greater than zero and less than the number of data sets
being considered.
3.6.8 WILLIAMS' PERCENTAGE R (%R)
Upon execution, the default period for %R calculations is
10-days. Other popular periods are 20 and 30-day intervals.
Longer periods identify longer term trends while shorter periods
catch short trends. Note that short term %R periods can cause the
investor to get caught up in a whipsaw. This period can be any
value greater than zero and less than the number of data sets
being considered.
3.6.9 POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE VOLUME INDEX
Upon execution, the default period for PVI and NVI moving average
calculations is 25-days. This period can be any value greater
than zero and less than the number of data sets being considered.
Longer periods identify longer term trends while shorter periods
catch short trends, while at the same time short periods are
subject to whipsaws.
3.6.10 ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE MOMENTUM
Upon execution, the default momentum period for the
Advance/Decline line is 10-days. This period can be any value
greater than zero but less than the number of data sets being
considered. Increasing the momentum period will provide more
smoothing than shorter periods.
3.6.11 TRADING BANDS PERCENTAGE
Upon execution, the default percentages for the top and bottom
trading bands are 10% and -5% of the value of the moving average
of the shortest duration (moving average #1). These percentages
work well with moving averages of around 10-days. As the moving
average period is lengthened, the average will tend to smooth out
and drop well below the high, low, close price data. Hence, the
percentages would need to increase from 10% to perhaps 15% or 20%
and from -5% to perhaps 0% or 5%, to properly envelop the price
data. This percentage value should be input as a whole number.
For example, enter 10 for 10% or -7 for -7%.
3.6.12 INDICATOR MOVING AVERAGE
Upon execution, the default period for the Indicator Moving
Average calculations is 10-days. Longer periods identify longer
term trends and provide greater smoothing of the indicator while
shorter periods catch short trends and provide less smoothing.
This period can be any value greater than zero and less than the
number of data sets being considered.
3.6.13 RESET DEFAULTS
Selecting Reset Defaults changes all variable periods to their
default values as defined above or as specified in the defaults
.dfl data file.
3.7 GRAPH TOOLS
Once an indicator has been displayed, a set of graph tools become
available to enhance the analysis of the indicators. The
following provides a description of the various tools, how to
implement them, and suggestions on ways to use them. With an
indicator graph displayed, a graph tool is first selected by
pressing the right mouse button and moving the mouse such that
the pointer is over the Graph Tools menu. With the right mouse
button still depressed and the submenus displayed, move the mouse
down to the desired submenu tool which will become highlighted.
Releasing the mouse button will then select that tool placing the
program in a particular mode as described below.
3.7.1 GRAPH DATA
Selecting Graph Data will place the program in a mode in which
the high, low, and closing price data and the volume and
associated date changes in the heading as the mouse pointer moves
within the graph. For example, if the Dow Jones Industrial
Average is loaded and the Moving Average price indicator has been
displayed, selecting Graph Data allows the user to move the mouse
and 'point' to locations within the graph and read in the heading
the high, low, and closing prices, the volume, and the date for
that point.
The Graph Data mode remains in effect until the left mouse button
is clicked. The Graph Data tool is available for all indicator
graphs. It is useful in conjunction with a graph upon which the
daily close of an equity has been overlaid using the Overlay
Price tool (see 3.7.2).
3.7.2 OVERLAY PRICE
The Overlay Price tool overlays the daily closing price over an
already displayed indicator graph. For example, the Dow Jones
Industrials Average has been loaded and the RSI price indicator
displayed. Selecting Overlay Price will overlay the daily closing
price of the DJIA over the RSI indicator graph. Once the daily
plot is complete, the program exits the Overlay Price mode.
With a technical indicator graph displayed, it is many times
desirable to see what movement in stock price caused the
associated movement in the indicator. In addition, there are
times when a divergence between the movement of a stock price and
the movement of an indicator foretells of a trend reversal.
The Overlay Price tool does not provide a price scale when it is
plotted. Therefore, if it is required to know the values of the
prices overlaid on an indicator graph, the user can use the Graph
Data tool described in 3.7.1 to display the price information.
The Overlay Price tool is available for all indicator graphs
except for the Moving Average price indicator which already
displays daily price data.
3.7.3 TREND LINES
The Trend Lines tool is used to draw one or more trend lines.
This tool is essential for determining price support and
resistance levels. Trend line analysis is further explained in
section 4.16. The Trend Line tool is available for use with all
indicator graphs. Once selected, move the mouse such that the
pointer is at the first point and depress the left mouse button.
With the left mouse button still depressed, move the mouse (which
extends the trend line) such that the pointer moves to the second
point. Releasing the mouse button draws a trend line.
Note that the program is still in the Trend Line mode. Subsequent
trend lines parallel to the first may be drawn by simply moving
the mouse such that the pointer is over a desired point and
clicking the left mouse button. As many parallel trend lines may
be drawn as desired.
The program stays in the Trend Line mode until the Return key is
pressed.
3.7.4 EXTEND CHART
The Extend Chart tool extends the Moving Average price indicator
graph both time-wise and price-wise. The Extend Chart tool is
therefore only available when the Moving Average price indicator
graph is displayed. Upon selecting this tool, a window opens
prompting for an amount to extend the chart in dollars and days.
Pressing Return completes the entries and the Moving Average
price indicator graph is redisplayed in the extended format.
Once the graph has been redrawn, other tools or program functions
may be used. The tool is useful in conjunction with the Trend
Line tool for extending trends into the future.
3.7.5 CYCLE LINES
The Cycle Lines tool draws a series of vertical parallel lines
across the face of an indicator graph. Since many stock prices
or trends are cyclic in nature, the Cycle Lines tool is useful in
determining the length of those cycles. Once the Cycle Line tool
has been selected, the cycle lines are drawn.
The number of days in the cycle may be increased by one day by
pressing the cursor-up key, or by 5-days by pressing the 8 key on
the keypad. The number of days in the cycle may be decreased by
one day by pressing the cursor-down key, or by 5-days by pressing
the 2 key on the keypad.
The cycle can be shifted to the left by one day by pressing the
cursor-left key, or by 5-days by pressing the 4 key on the
keypad. The cycle can be shifted to the right by one day by
pressing the cursor-right key, or by 5-days by pressing the 6 key
on the keypad.
Another use for the Cycle Line tool is in conjunction with the
Extend Chart tool. When the chart is extended, the lines
depicting the months do not extend into the future. The Cycle
Line tool can be used to draw the month lines into the future.
There are typically 21 trading days in a month which is the
default setting for the Cycle Line tool upon selection.
The Cycle Line mode is exited by pressing the Return key.
3.7.6 TRADING BANDS
The Trading Bands tool is available only when the Moving Average
price graph is displayed. The Trading Bands tool draws a trading
channel envelope which represents a percentage increase or
decrease of the first moving average (that is the moving average
with the shortest duration). For example, if the first moving
average period is set to 10-days and the second moving average is
set to 501-days (thus inhibiting a display of a second moving
average), and a 10-day exponential moving average is calculated
and displayed, selecting Trading Band from the Graph Tools menu
will draw a trading channel which envelops the price data. Since
stock prices typically trade within certain price limits during a
trend, a price will move higher and lower within a trading
channel. For a price to move significantly out of this trading
range (+/- 3%) would signal a breakout in a particular direction.
See section 4.16 for a further discussion on Trend Lines and
Trading Channels. The Trading Bands tool is useful as it provides
a visual indication when a stock price breaks out of a trading
pattern.
3.7.7 INDICATOR MOVING AVERAGE
The Indicator Moving Average is available whenever a price or
volume indicator graph is displayed, with the exception of the
price indicators: MACD and Moving Averages, and the volume
indicator: Positive and Negative Volume Index. This tool simply
draws an exponential moving average of the displayed indicator.
This tool is useful as a means of smoothing an otherwise erratic
indicator. In addition, many times a moving average overlaid on
an indicator graph is used as a trigger line to provide buy and
sell signals. For example, a 10-day exponential moving average
overlaid atop a 12-day Price Rate-of-Change can provide buy and
sell signals when the indicators cross.
Note, due to a scaling conflict, the Indicator Moving Average and
the Overlay Price tool are incompatible. Therefore, if the user
wishes to display both the price data over an indicator, as well
as a moving average of the indicator, the Indicator Moving
Average tool should be selected first, and overlaying the price
data via the Overlay Price tool second.
3.7.8 LEAST SQUARES
The Least Squares tool is available when there is a price graph
displayed. A price graph is displayed upon initially loading an
equity, or after selecting the Moving Average under the Price
Indicator menu. The Least Squares tool simply draws a straight
line based upon the least squares line fit of the data between
two given points.
Upon selecting the tool Least Squares, the left most data point
of the data set being considered is specified by moving the mouse
to the first point and pressing the left mouse button. A
vertical line will be drawn at that point. The right most data
point of the data set being considered is specified by moving the
mouse to the second point and pressing the left mouse button. A
vertical line will be drawn at that point and the least squares
line will be drawn.
The least squares line drawn depicts the general trend of the
data within the specified interval. In addition, if the least
squares line is drawn from a point in time to the present, the
relative deviation above and below the least squares line
provides insight into where a current price is (high or low)
based upon historical data.
4.0 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
This chapter introduces the general basis of technical analysis.
In addition, a discussion of each technical indicator produced by
The Stock Analyst is presented as well as suggestions on using
the indicator under various market conditions. The discussions
presented here are intended to provide a general overview of the
use of a technical indicator or a concept of technical analysis.
For a more complete and in depth study of technical analysis, the
user is urged to investigate the publications listed in Appendix
B.
4.1 GENERAL
Buy low, sell high. How many times have we heard these words and
wished we could anticipate market tops and bottoms. While the
idea of buying low and selling high is simple, putting this idea
into action generally results in a financial loss for those who
have no methodology behind their timing in and out of the stock
market. A certain amount of market analysis is required to be
profitable whether it be fundamental or technical in nature.
A fundamental analyst attempts to predict the movement of a stock
price based upon a company's prospect for growth and profitably.
The fundamentalist considers the company's earnings and ability
to perform within its industry group. Also considered are the
overall national and global economic conditions and how they may
effect the success of the company. Other issues may come into
play such as political unrest, natural disasters or some other
fundamental influence which may effect the financial status of a
company. Generally, fundamentalists invest based upon issues
which cause a stock price to move.
A technical analyst does not care what specifically causes a
stock to move in price. A basic premise of technical analysis is
that fundamental influences on the price of a stock are already
incorporated into the price of the stock. Therefore, the
technical analyst is not concerned with fundamental issues, but
rather the actual movement of stock prices which tend to move in
fairly predictable patterns over time.
The Stock Analyst provides various price and volume technical
indicators which can be used to track and predict the general
movement of the price of a stock. How to use each indicator as
well as the effectiveness of an indicator under various market
conditions are discussed. The indicators afforded the small
investor by The Stock Analyst should be used in many cases to
confirm and be confirmed by another. Through this confirmation
process, market timing can be such that buying low and selling
high is possible with a relatively high degree of confidence.
Successful investing depends heavily upon experience, cool
emotions, and a consistent method of technical analysis of
individual stocks. The investor should develop an investment
strategy which incorporates stop-loss measures and the use of
fundamental and technical analysis to base buy and sell decisions
upon. The trader should still expect to encounter some losing
trades; however, by setting a stop-loss point and limiting
losses, the difference between the profitable trades and losers
will result in an overall profit. The Stock Analyst is a
necessary tool any investor can use in the technical analysis of
market securities to enhance the opportunity to profit in today's
stock market.
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The remainder of Chapter 4 is reserved for owners of
The Stock Analyst.
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APPENDICES
Individuals who invest in the Stock Market should obviously know
what they are doing. The user is urged to read as much as
possible concerning investing in the Stock Market. There is no
substitute for the combination of knowledge and experience.
Appendix A lists the resources used to prepare The Stock Analyst
software and this manual. Appendix B lists a few books which
deal with Technical Analysis as well as investing in the Stock
Market.
APPENDIX A: REFERENCES
"How %R Spots Reversals, Confirms Valid Trends", Elder,
Alexander, Futures, March 1987.
"Using Stochastics to Catch Early Trends and Reversals", Elder,
Alexander, Futures, 1987."
Commodity Channel Index: Tool for Trading Cyclic Trends",
Lambert, Donald R., Commodities, October 1980.
"How to use MACD to Catch Price Trends Early", Elder, Alexander,
Futures 1987.
"Technical Analysis Explained", Pring, Martin J., Copyright
(C)1985.
"The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators", Colby, Robert
W. and Meyers, Thomas A., Copyright (C) 1988.
"The Technical Analysis of Stocks, Options, and Futures", Eng,
William F., Copyright (C) 1988.
APPENDIX B: SUGGESTED READING
"Technical Analysis Explained", Pring, Martin J., Copyright
(C)1985.
"The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators", Colby, Robert
W. and Meyers, Thomas A., Copyright (C) 1988.
"The Technical Analysis of Stocks, Options, and Futures", Eng,
William F., Copyright (C) 1988.
"How to Make Money in Stocks", O'Neil, William J., Copyright
(C)1988.
"Technical Analysis: A Personal Seminar", New York Institute of
Finance, Copyright (C) 1989.
INDEX
- A -
Accumulation ... 3.4.1, 3.4.2, 3.4.5, 4.4, 4.17
Advanced/Decline Line ... 1.3.3, 2.4.1, 2.4.2, 2.4.3, 3.5, 3.5.1,
4.12
Advance/Decline Momentum ... 3.6.10
Advance/Decline Ratio ... 3.5.2, 4.2
- B -
Back-up The Stock Analyst Disk ... i, 1.1.3
Booting The Stock Analyst Disk ... 1.1, 1.1.2, 1.2
Breadth Advance/Decline Indicator ... 3.5.3, 4.2
Breakout ... 3.7.6, 4.16
- C -
CBOE ... 1.3, 1.3.4, 2.0, 2.4.1, 2.4.2, 2.4.3, 3.5 3.5.4, 4.3
CBOE Put/Call Ratio ... 1.3.4, 3.5, 3.5.4, 4.3
Call ... 4.3
Chaikin Oscillator ... 3.4.1, 4.4
Chaikin, Marc ... 4.4
Change Directory ... 2.2.2, 3.2.5
Chart Analysis ... 4.16
Clear Screen ... 3.2.4
Colby, Robert W. ... Appendix A, Appendix B
Commodity ... 1.3.2
Commodity Channel Index ... 3.3.1, 3.6.1, 4.5, Appendix A
Contents, Disk ... 1.1.2
Table of ... ii
Crossing of Indicators ... 3.7.7, 4.2, 4.7, 4.8, 4.10
Cycle ... 3.7.5, 4.5, 4.9
- D -
Default Indicator Period File ... 1.3.6, 2.3.1, 2.4.6
Defaults, Advance/Decline Momentum ... 3.6.10
Commodity Channel Index ... 3.6.1
Cycle Line ... 3.7.5
Directional Movement Indicator ... 3.6.2
Editing ... 2.4.6, 3.6,
Indicator Moving Average ... 3.6.12
Lane's Stochastics ... 3.6.3
Linear Regression ... 3.6.4
Moving Average ... 3.6.5
Positive/Negative Volume Index ... 3.6.9
Price Rate-of-Change ... 3.6.6
Relative Strength Index ... 3.6.7
Reset ... 3.6.1
Trading Band Percentage ... 3.6.11
Williams' Percent R ... 3.6.8
Directional Movement Indicator ... 3.3.2, 4.6
Distribution ... 3.4.2, 3.4.5, 4.4, 4.17
Divergence ... 3.3.1, 3.7.2, 4.2, 4.5, 4.7, 4.15, 4.18, 4.19
Dividend, Stock ... 2.4.5
Dow Jones Industrial Average ... 1.1.2, 3.7.2, 4.2
- E -
Edit Defaults ... See Defaults
Edit Equity File ... 2.4
Edit Master File ... 2.3
Edit, Add Data Entry ... 2.4.1
Add Equity Entry ... 2.3.1
Default Indicator Period File ... 2.4.6
Delete Data Entry ... 2.4.3
Delete Equity Entry ... 2.3.3
Edit Data Entry ... 2.4.2
Edit Equity Entry ... 2.3.2
Elder, Alexander ... Appendix A
Eng, William F. ... Appendix A, Appendix B
Envelope Trading Channel ... 3.6.11, 3.7.6, 4.16
- F -
File, .bmap ... 1.1.2
Format of Advance/Decline ... 1.3.3
Format of CBOE Put/Call ... 1.3.4
Format of Default Indicator Period ... 1.3.6
Format of Equity Data ... 1.3.2
Format of Master Index ... 1.3.1
Format of S&P500/S&P100 ... 1.3.5
system-configuration ... 1.1
Fosback, Norman ... 4.12
Fundamental Analyst ... 4.1
- G -
General, The Stock Analyst: ... 1.1, 2.1, 3.1, 4.1
Granville, Joe ... 4.11
Graph Data ... 3.7.1, 3.7.2
Graphic Dump ... 1.1, 1.1.1, 3.2.3, 3.3, 3.4
- H -
Histogram ... 3.3.7, 4.10
- I -
Indicator, Contrarian ... 4.3
Crossing of ... 3.7.7, 4.7, 4.9, 4.10, 4.12
Market Breadth ... 3.5, 4.2, 4.3
Moving Average of ... 3.6.10, 3.7.7
Price ... 3.3, 3.6
Volume ... 3.4
- K -
Kickstart ... 1.1, 1.2
- L -
Lambert, Donald R. ... Appendix A
Lane, Dr. George ... 3.3.4, 3.6.3, 4.7
Least Squares ... 3.7.8
Linear Regression ... 3.3.5, 3.6.4, 4.8
Load, Stock Data ... 3.2.1
Stock Updater ... 1.2, 1.2.1
Stock Analyst ... 1.2, 1.2.2
- M -
MACD ... 3.3.6, 3.7.7, 4.10, Appendix A
Meyers, Thomas A. ... Appendix A, Appendix B
Momentum ... 3.3.8, 4.15
Momentum Oscillator ... 3.3.8, 3.5.2, 4.13
Moving Average, Centered ... 3.3.7, 4.9
Exponential ... 3.3.6, 3.3.7, 3.7.7, 4.9, 4.10
Simple ... 3.3.6, 3.4.3, 3.5.4, 4.3, 4.7, 4.9
Uncentered ... 4.9
Unweighted ... 3.3.6, 4.9
Weighted ... 4.9
Moving Average Convergence Divergence ... 3.3.6, 3.7.7, 4.10,
Appendix A
- N -
Negative Direction Indicator ... 3.3.3, 3.6.2, 4.6
New York Institute of Finance ... Appendix B
- O -
O'Neil, William J. ... Appendix B
On-Balance Volume ... 3.4.2, 4.11
Oscillator, Momentum ... 3.3.8, 4.13
Price ... 3.3.4, 3.3.10, 3.3.11, 4.5
Overbought ... 3.3.1, 3.3.8, 3.3.10, 3.3.11, 3.5.2, 4.5, 4.7,
4.13, 4.18, 4.19
Overlay, Price ... 3.7.1, 3.7.2
Oversold ... 3.3.1, 3.3.8, 3.3.10, 3.3.11, 3.5.2, 4.5, 4.7, 4.13,
4.18, 4.19
- P -
Percent R ... 3.3.11, 3.6.8, 4.19, Appendix A
Positive Direction Indicator ... 3.3.3, 3.6.2, 4.6
Positive and Negative Volume Index ... 3.4.3, 3.6.9, 3.7.7, 4.12
Price and Volume Trend ... 3.4.4, 4.14
Price Indicator ... 3.3
Price Rate-of-Change ... 3.3.8, 3.6.6, 4.13
Pring, Martin J. ... Appendix A, Appendix B
Print, Data ... 2.2.1, 3.2.2
Screen ... 1.1, 1.1.1, 3.2.3, 3.3, 3.4
Project, Stock Analyst ... 3.2
Stock Updater ... 2.2
Put/Call Ratio ... 1.3.4, 2.4.1, 2.4.2, 2.4.3, 3.5, 3.5.4, 4.3
Put ... 4.3
- Q -
Quit, Stock Analyst ... 3.2.6
Stock Updater ... 2.2.3
- R -
Rate-of-Change, Price ... 3.3.8, 3.6.6, 4.13
Relative Strength ... 3.3.9, 4.15
Relative Strength Index ... 3.3.10, 3.6.7, 4.18
Resistance, Line of ... 3.7.3, 4.16
- S -
Software License Agreement ... i, Back Cover
Stochastics ... 3.3.4, 3.6.3, 4.7, Appendix A
Stock Analyst ... 3.0
Stock Analyst, Executing ... 1.2, 1.2.2
General ... 3.1
Stock Dividend ... 2.4.5
Stock Split ... 2.4.4
Stock Updater ... 2.0
Stock Updater, Executing ... 1.2, 1.2.1
General ... 2.1
Support, Line of ... 3.7.3, 4.16
system-configuration file ... 1.1
- T -
Technical Analysis ... 4.0, 4.1, Appendix A, Appendix B
Technical Analyst ... 4.1
Tool, Cycle Line ... 3.7.5
Graph Data ... 3.7.1
Extend Chart ... 3.7.4
Graph ... 3.7
Indicator Moving Average ... 3.7.7
Least Squares ... 3.7.8
Overlay Price ... 3.7.2
Trading Band ... 3.7.6
Trend Line ...3.7.3
Trading Channel ... 3.7.6, 4.16
Trend Line ... 3.7.3, 4.16
Trend, Bear ... 3.3.5, 4.2, 4.3, 4.5, 4.7, 4.9, 4.10, 4.11, 4.16,
4.18, 4.19
Bull ... 3.3.5, 4.2, 4.3, 4.5, 4.7, 4.9, 4.10, 4.11, 4.16,
4.18, 4.19
Trend, Continuation ... 3.3.8, 4.15, 4.11
Doubtful ...4.4, 4.11, 4.14, 4.17
Neutral ... 3.3.2, 3.3.4, 3.3.11, 4.5, 4.7, 4.9, 4.16, 4.18,
4.19
Reversal ... 3.3.1, 3.3.4, 3.3.5, 3.3.11, 3.7.2, 4.2, 4.5,
4.7, 4.9, 4.10, 4.11, 4.13, 4.15, 4.16, 4.18,
4.19, Appendix A
Trading ... 3.3.3, 3.3.4, 3.3.11, 4.5, 4.7, 4.9, 4.18, 4.19
Trigger Line ... 3.3.6, 3.7.7, 4.3, 4.5, 4.10, 4.13
- V -
Volume Accumulation and Distribution ... 3.4.5, 4.17
Volume Indicator ... 3.4
- W -
Whipsaw ... 3.6, 3.6.1, 3.6.2, 3.6.3, 3.6.4, 3.6.6, 3.6.7, 3.6.8,
3.6.9, 4.5, 4.9
Wilder, J. Welles ... 3.3.10, 3.6.7, 4.18
Williams Percent R ... 3.3.11, 3.6.8, 4.19, Appendix A
Williams, Larry ...3.3.11, 4.19
Workbench ... 1.1, 1.1.2, 1.2
- Z -
Zoom-in ... 3.2.1
Zoom-out ...3.2.1